Russian stocks might fall as ruble climbs up

MOSCOW, Sep 12 (PRIME) -- The Russian stock market is likely to start the Tuesday trade with a contraction, as a rapid growth of the ruble’s exchange rate undermines the shares of exporters at the time when the market lacks positive drivers, analysts said.

“We expect the sales in the Russian shares to prevail at the start of the trade session today. The strengthening of the national currency will exert pressure on the shares of exporters,” Bodgan Zvarich, senior analyst at financial marketplace Banki.ru, said.

The negative impact of the ruble’s rate could be partially compensated by an improvement of the situation with oil prices, which would support the oil and gas sector, Zvarich said.

At the same time, the MOEX Russia Index beat the acceleration trend that has been in place since the second half of March on Monday, and the sales on Tuesday could lead to a further contraction of the market toward the support level of 3,075, he said.

Alexei Antonov, head of Alor Broker’s investment consulting department, said that the reasons for the negative dynamics of the MOEX Russia Index remain the same. The former growth drivers are waning while the yields on risk-free investment are rising.

“The technical picture of the market is worsening as well, because the MOEX Russia Index has started testing the support level of the upward trend of mid-February. The support levels like that usually remain unbroken without additional negative factors,” Alor Broker’s Antonov said.

BitRiver’s financial analyst Vladislav Antonov said commenting on the ruble’s dynamics that verbal interventions of officials and top bankers inspired the currency to grow.

In addition to that, the central bank expanded its daily sales of foreign currency to 21.4 billion rubles from 2.3 billion rubles from Thursday until September 24, and exporters would join the regulator because they need rubles for tax payment. Therefore, the ruble would continue rising until the end of the month, he said.

(96.5083 rubles – U.S. $1)

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